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Lithium Market Outlook
To end the quarter, SQM announced plans to pilot test direct lithium extraction technologies with a goal of selecting one or more for long-term use by 2025. “We would like to have multiple direct lithium extraction solutions,” Diaz said on stage during the Fastmarkets conference. “It’s difficult to choose one that is going to fit and be suitable for all kinds of different chemicals that can be in different types of brine.” The supersized amount represented the highest monthly total in 10 months, and was driven by a 14 percent increase in financings and several high-value deals. In the long term, demand for lithium carbonate equivalent is set to increase to 2.5 million tonnes by 2030, a substantial difference from the 292,000 tonnes of demand recorded in 2020.
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As the last month of Q2 unfolded, concerns about weakened EV sales in the EU and Europe continued to apply pressure to lithium demand and prices. Adams noted that Chinese demand growth is set to dip from 113 percent in 2022 to 32 percent this year, while in Europe it’s projected to fall from 44 percent in 2022 to 7 percent in 2024. During a discussion at this year’s Fastmarkets Lithium and Battery Raw Materials conference, Zihao Lee, Fastmarkets price reporter, gave an overview of the current state of the overall lithium market. View the latest top stories from our trusted partners, with a focus on today’s futures and commodity markets. At INN Georgia covers a wide range of topics, including energy, battery and critical metals and diamonds. In her spare time, Georgia enjoys watching documentaries and experiencing Toronto’s vibrant food, arts and cultural scene.
- Currently, according to Fastmarkets’ assessments, battery-grade lithium chemicals sit below US$15.
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Much of that increased production has come out of China, where domestic lithium carbonate equivalent output grew by a whopping 44 percent in 2023. On Mainland China, production climbed to 275,000 tonnes, while Chinese operations in Africa and South America delivered 30,000 tonnes of the material. INN recaps key lithium sector events in Q2 and shares expert insights on what will shape the market in the coming months. Most data tables can be analyzed using “Views.” A View simply presents the symbols on the page with a different set of columns. End-of-Day prices are updated at 8pm CST each evening, and includes the previous session volume and open interest information.
Metal Spot Price Charts Lithium Price Chart (USD / Metric Ton) for the Last 2 years
“The lithium market is in a difficult space — low prices are putting the brakes on development, when in reality there is no time to waste,” he said. Lithium is mainly used for energy storage such as batteries for electric vehicles and sustainable energy generation. The price of Lithium is expected to rise substantially in coming years as the world moves further towards using green energy and lower carbon industry. As new lithium projects get sidelined due to low prices, what other factors are shaping the lithium market in 2024?
Our independently audited lithium pricing process aligns with core IOSCO principles. Our price reporters are required to follow robust pricing procedures, clearly defined methodologies and price specifications during incredible charts their market reporting and pricing sessions. The list of symbols included on the page is updated every 10 minutes throughout the trading day. However, new stocks are not automatically added to or re-ranked on the page until the site performs its 10-minute update. Looking ahead, Adams noted that the lithium market is consolidating in an environment of oversupply, weak demand and high inventory. He added that there is a risk of further price weakness due to the continued oversupply.
Earlier in the month, SQM partnered with Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper miner, to jointly exploit lithium and other resources in the Salar de Atacama. The venture aligns with Chile’s strategy to nationalize its lithium industry, leveraging its status as the holder of the world’s largest lithium reserves and a leading producer of the battery metal. Under the nationalization plan, Codelco will hold the majority stake in the joint venture. The partnership entails merging Codelco’s subsidiary, Minera Tarar, with SQM’s subsidiary, SQM Salar, to boost lithium production through 2060.
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However, lower prices could prompt more supply restraint, helping to rebalance the market. As Fastmarkets’ Lee explained during his presentation, the market glut and weak prices have been especially challenging for junior miners and lithium companies in the intermediate stage. For reference, we include the date and timestamp of when the list was last updated at the top right of the page. However, the most pronounced decline is anticipated to be the US market, where demand growth will fall from 81 percent in 2022 to a meager 4 percent in 2024. Informative feedback on market conditions across various lithium products in multiple regions.
These drops are the result of first-adopter saturation, as well as consumer concerns about affordability, range and charging infrastructure, said Adams. Lithium carbonate equivalent prices slipped to US$14,780.57 at the start of April, but had clawed back to a Q2 high of US$15,503.96 by April 9. They then began a consolidation period that would last for the rest of the quarter. The Cash Contract is listed as the first contract at the top of the page. This hindrance to the project pipeline could make the market swing back into deficit as early as 2028, said Lee. According to the firm, funds raised by junior and intermediate mining companies soared 179 percent month-on-month in April to reach US$1.38 billion, following a slow start to 2024.
The LME, CME and SGX have all launched or announced futures contracts that are cash settled against the Fastmarkets lithium indices. These allow market participants to lock in future prices, hedging as much or as little exposure as they wish. The ability to protect margins in this way enables supply chains to be more robust, while strengthening the growth of the battery materials market. Trade best white label forex brokers and providers 2023 with lithium price data that is unbiased, IOSCO-compliant and widely used across the energy commodity markets. Our lithium prices are market-reflective, assessing both the buy- and sell-side of transactions.
As you navigate this ever-changing landscape, you need prices and forecasts for key battery materials that you can rely on to reflect supply and demand conditions now and for the future. The All Futures page lists all open contracts for the commodity you’ve selected. Intraday futures prices are delayed 10 minutes, per exchange rules, and are listed in CST. Overnight (Globex) prices are shown on the page through to 7pm CT, after which time it will list only trading activity for the next day. Once the markets have closed, the Last Price will show an ‘s’ after the price, indicating the price has settled for the day. With prices locked in a downward trajectory, Will Adams, head of base metals research at Fastmarkets, warned of the sector’s precarious state in his presentation at the conference.